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Diabetes and Vascular Disease

SAT-555 - Temporal Trends of Diabetes Risk Subgroups in Mexico: A Retrospective Analysis of Nationally Representative Surveys Spanning 2016-2024

Saturday, June 13, 2026
9:30 AM - 4:30 PM CT
Location: ENDOExpo; Poster Floor
Introduction
Prediabetes can help to identify patients at risk of developing type 2 diabetes but routine screening for prediabetes has been disputed. Data-driven approaches could be useful to more accurately stratify individuals at risk of diabetes, particularly in low- and middle- income countries. Here, we aim to reproduce previously described diabetes risk clusters using nationally representative data to estimate their prevalence and trends over time in the Mexican population.
Methods
We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Survey in Mexico (2016-2024). We implemented k-prototype clustering to replicate six clusters using the following variables: sex, family history of diabetes, educational attainment, body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, insulin, HOMA-2B, and HOMA-2IR. We estimated the prevalence of each subgroup using survey weights and accounting for ENSANUT’s complex survey design. We defined low vs. high-risk clusters according to the prevalence of prediabetes, defined as either fasting glucose 100-125 mg/dL or HbA1c 5.7-6.4%.
Results
Among 16,866 Mexican adults without diabetes and with complete data, we found that three subgroups were associated with a very low prevalence of prediabetes (ranging from 1% to 13%), while the other three subgroups were associated with high prediabetes prevalence (from 29% to 64%). All individuals were classified into one of six previously described risk categories: 1) very low-risk (VLR), prevalence of 32.2% in 2016 (95% CI: 28.6-35.7) and 38.8% in 2024 (32.1-45.5); 2) low-risk low beta-cell function (LR-LB), 19.6% in 2016 (16.3-22.9) and 17.5% in 2024 (13.1-21.9); 3) low-risk high beta-cell function (LR-HB), 12.0% in 2016 (9.3-14.8) and 16.3% in 2024 (12.1-20.6); 4) high-risk high blood pressure (HR-HBP), 7.4% in 2016 (5.8-9.1) and 7.1% in 2024 (4.7-9.6); 5) high-risk insulin resistance (HR-IR), 4.3% in 2016 (2.8-5.8) and 3.8% in 2024 (2.0-5.5); and 6) high-risk beta-cell failure (HR-BF), 24.5% in 2016 (21.2-27.8) and 16.5% in 2024 (11.9-21.0)
Conclusion
Data-driven clustering could improve diabetes risk stratification beyond prediabetes definitions. Our findings suggest a population shift toward lower-risk profiles in Mexico, with declining high-risk beta-cell failure and increasing very low-risk groups nationally. Further studies in Mexican and Latin American populations examining the longitudinal association of these subgroups with diabetes and cardiovascular disease are warranted.

*Unless otherwise noted, all abstracts presented at ENDO must not be released to the press or the public until the date and time of presentation. For oral presentations, the abstracts are embargoed until the session begins. The Endocrine Society reserves the right to lift the embargo on specific abstracts that are selected for promotion prior to or during ENDO.*